What is the NRF report?

It’s called The Impact of Retail Theft and Violence 2026. NRF published it on July 30, 2026, together with the Loss Prevention Research Council, and Sensormatic Solutions sponsored it. The groups surveyed senior loss prevention and security leaders between February and April 2026. In all, 66 retail companies answered. Together they cover 143 brands and $1.7 trillion in 2025 sales, which is about 31.6% of all US retail sales.

One thing to know before you quote these numbers. The people who answered mostly run big operations. About 63% of them have more than 10,000 employees, and 38% run at least 1,000 stores. A small grocery chain or a regional hardware group may see something different, so hold these figures up against your own.

What did the report find?

Walkout and pushout theft just means someone walks or pushes a cart out the door without paying, sometimes in plain view of staff.

Why did shoplifting go down?

David Johnston, NRF’s vice president for asset protection and retail operations, said store theft levels are stabilizing and credited investments in technology and employee training. The report doesn’t prove a single cause. A drop in one year can also reverse. So treat it as a trend to watch, not a reason to relax.

What do the growing fraud types look like in a store?

These are common forms. Yours may look a little different.

• Phone scams. Someone calls the store, says they’re a manager, a district leader, or a vendor, and pushes a worker to send money, buy gift cards, or read out codes. The caller is counting on a busy employee not wanting to say no to the boss.

• Loyalty fraud. Someone breaks into loyalty accounts and spends the points, or plays a promotion again and again.

• Gift card theft or fraud. Cards get stolen, packaging gets tampered with so the numbers can be copied, or the balance is drained after a shopper loads it.

• Repeat offenders. The same people keep coming back, sometimes taking small amounts each time.

What does the report say about police reports?

Here is a number worth sitting with. 63% of retailers said they report fewer than half of the theft incidents in their stores to police. Among the reasons, 60% pointed to small losses or losses under the felony threshold, and 54% said they worry that police won’t respond or follow through. Our guide to reporting retail theft covers what makes a report useful.

What should a store do with this?

1. Count fraud next to theft. Most shrink reports track missing stock and not much else. Add returns, voids, gift card activity, loyalty redemptions, and scam attempts, so you can see the full picture.

2. Teach one rule about phone calls. Put a card by every store phone that says: no manager, district leader, or vendor will ever ask you to buy gift cards, move money, or read out codes over the phone. Hang up and call back on a number you already have.

3. Secure your gift cards. Keep them where staff can see them, and check the packaging each morning.

4. Keep a repeat offender log. Write down the date, time, items, and a description each time. A plain spreadsheet works. Half of retailers are seeing more repeat offenders, and a log is how you spot them.

5. Report in a steady way. Decide which incidents you report, then do it the same way every time.

6. Watch the places where fraud happens. Registers, the returns desk, the customer service desk, the gift card display, and the exits are good places to start.

Where does AI video fit?

Let’s be straight about it. Video can’t see a loyalty account takeover, and it can’t hear a phone scam. What it can do is watch the places where a lot of theft and fraud shows up on camera, like registers, the returns desk, and the doors, and tell a person when something looks off.

Spacture AI does that with the cameras a store already has, so no camera replacement is required. Across 500+ US retail locations, Spacture AI delivers 87% alert accuracy, a 74% reduction in false alerts, and a 43 second response time. A person on your team reviews each alert and decides what to do.

Frequently asked questions

Is shoplifting really going down in the US?

In this survey, yes. Retailers reported 12.4% fewer shoplifting incidents in 2025 than in 2024. The respondents were mostly large chains, so check the trend in your own stores before you assume it applies to you.

Which types of fraud grew the most?

By share of retailers reporting an increase, phone scams came first at 69%, then loyalty fraud at 51%, then gift card theft or fraud at 42%.

Does a drop in shoplifting mean I can spend less on loss prevention?

NRF connects the drop to spending on technology and training, so cutting back could undo it. Fraud and repeat offenders are also still growing.

What is a repeat offender in retail?

It’s a person who steals from the same store, or from several stores in the same area, again and again. In the report, 50% of retailers said they saw more of them.

Where can I read NRF’s summary?

NRF’s press release is linked in the sources below.

About Spacture AI

Spacture AI is a New York based retail loss prevention platform. It uses AI video intelligence on the cameras retailers already own to detect theft, fraud, and safety incidents in real time. It runs in 500+ US retail locations and is SOC 2 Type II and ISO 27001 certified, and GDPR and CCPA compliant.

Sources

• Retailers See Fraud Schemes Evolve as Shoplifting Declines, NRF Study Finds, National Retail Federation, July 30, 2026