NRF expects $1.013 trillion in holiday sales and up to 375,000 seasonal hires. Use this plain checklist to cut theft, fraud, and safety problems.
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6 min read
The short answer
NRF expects US holiday sales to grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion across November and December 2026, and expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers. More shoppers, more new employees, more gift cards, and more returns all land on the same stores at once. A solid holiday plan covers six areas: people, high theft items, registers, gift cards, returns, and crowd safety. Most steps take a week or less, so if you're reading this in late October, there's still time. Black Friday is November 27, 2026.
Why is Q4 harder for loss prevention?
Picture the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Eight registers are open and the line reaches the door. Three people started on Wednesday. Your manager got pulled onto the floor to help. That is exactly when small controls slip.
A few things stack up at once:
Crowds are bigger, so it’s harder for anyone to notice anything
Many workers are new and haven’t learned your rules yet
Managers are on the floor and not reviewing reports
Gift card sales and returns jump
On returns, NRF’s 2025 survey found retailers expect about 17% of holiday sales to come back. In the same survey, 43% of retailers planned to hire seasonal staff to help with holiday returns, and 37% planned to extend return windows.
What does a good holiday plan look like?
Here is a simple timeline. Adjust it to your calendar.
When | What to do |
|---|---|
This week | Train seasonal hires, lock down gift cards, set return rules |
Two weeks before Black Friday | Move your top theft items, set peak staffing, test who gets alerts |
Black Friday weekend (November 27) | Daily counts of top items, daily void review, extra attendant at self checkout |
Mid December | Refresh training, check the returns desk, walk the exits |
Week after Christmas | Staff the returns desk, watch buy online, return in store |
January | Hold a 30 minute review of what worked |
The six area checklist
1. People
Give every seasonal hire a 30 minute basics session: cash handling, returns, gift cards, scam calls, and who to tell when something looks wrong
Pair new hires with an experienced worker for their first shifts
Limit who holds keys and who can get to the safe and the back room
Check references and backgrounds according to your policy and local law
Give people an easy way to speak up, like a phone number or a manager they trust
2. High theft items
Pull your list of the 20 items with the biggest losses
Move them closer to staff, or reduce how much sits on the floor
Count them daily during peak weeks
Keep displays neat, so a gap stands out
3. Registers and self checkout
Add an attendant at self checkout during busy hours
Review voids, discounts, and manual price changes daily
Keep bags, carts, and displays from blocking the view of the lanes
Our guide to self checkout theft goes deeper on this one.
4. Gift cards
Keep cards behind the counter if you can, or at least where staff can see them
Check the packaging on the rack each morning for torn or resealed cards
Teach staff the signs of a scam, like a customer on the phone buying a pile of cards, or someone who seems rushed and scared
Repeat one rule: no manager will ever ask you to buy cards or read out codes over the phone
5. Returns
Post your holiday return policy with clear dates
Set limits for returns with no receipt, and decide when a manager must step in
For buy online, return in store, match the item to the order
Plan for the wave right after Christmas
Our guide to return fraud has more.
6. Safety and crowds
Walk the floor every shift for spills, blocked aisles, and blocked exits
Name one manager per shift who handles incidents
Remind staff not to chase or confront anyone, and to call 911 if someone is in danger
Our posts on safety incidents and slip and fall claims cover the response steps.
What about alerts and alarms?
Busy season is when alert fatigue hits hardest. More people on camera means more movement, and more false alerts if your tools aren’t tuned. Give each type of alert one owner, set a target for how quickly someone looks, and review what turned out to be real. Our post on false alerts walks through this.
Spacture AI is built for that. Across 500+ US retail locations, it delivers 87% alert accuracy, a 74% reduction in false alerts, and a 43 second response time. It works with the cameras you already have, and a person reviews each alert.
What should the one page plan say for the busiest days?
Role | Job on peak days |
|---|---|
Floor lead | Watches the registers and entrances |
Alert owner | Gets alerts and checks within a minute |
Manager on duty | Handles incidents and decides when to call for help |
Cash office lead | Counts and deposits on schedule |
Back room lead | Controls the back door and receiving |
Put names next to each job before the day starts.
What should you do after the holidays?
Hold a short review in January. Which items disappeared? Which hours were rough? Where did the plan break down? Which people did a great job? Write down three changes for next year while it’s fresh.
Frequently asked questions
When should we start holiday loss prevention?
Ideally in September. If you’re starting now, do these first: train seasonal hires, secure gift cards, and write down your return rules.
Do seasonal workers cause more theft?
Most don’t. The risk is that new people haven’t learned the rules yet, and busy stores check less often. Training and simple controls handle both.
When are the busiest shopping days?
Black Friday weekend and the last weekend before Christmas are usually the busiest for crowds. Returns climb in the days after Christmas.
How can a small store prepare?
Keep it simple. Train your holiday help, put your most stolen items where you can see them, keep gift cards behind the counter, and count your top items every day.
How do we cut holiday gift card scams?
Secure the cards, check packaging every morning, and teach staff to spot a customer who is being coached over the phone. Also remind everyone that no manager will ask for cards or codes by phone.
About Spacture AI
Spacture AI is a New York based retail loss prevention platform. It uses AI video intelligence on the cameras retailers already own to detect theft, fraud, and safety incidents in real time. It runs in 500+ US retail locations and is SOC 2 Type II and ISO 27001 certified, and GDPR and CCPA compliant.
Sources
NRF Forecasts 2026 Holiday Sales Growth as Consumers Remain Resilient, National Retail Federation, October 15, 2026
Consumers Expected to Return Nearly $850 Billion in Merchandise in 2025, National Retail Federation and Happy Returns, October 15, 2025
Key takeaways
More shoppers and more new employees mean more chances for small controls to slip. Train your seasonal hires, move your top theft items, watch the registers, lock down gift cards, set return rules, and keep your people safe. Then review it all in January.
